From the perspective of the source of the market, where is the demand for broadband access?Today's operators are different from those in the past. In the past, the government and enterprises were integrated, and they were technology-driven. Now, they are mainly market-driven.The demand for access bandwidth was investigated at the source. After the bandwidth demand is determined, the development strategy of broadband technology can be determined. According to the survey results around 2010, the demand of China Telecom's high-end users is only one HDTV, which needs about 6-10M.2-way SDTV, about 4-6M.The third category is video communication, which requires about 1-2M of bandwidth. There are also Internet users. Most of them are still 1M now, and many places have already upgraded to 2M. In the future, they may need to continue to upgrade to 2-6M.Online games, I recently inspected Tencent in the process of investigating broadband. Although Tencent is not the first, it also accounts for one of the main incomes. The first income is blog, and the second is virtual community, because I saw during the research process. The following old man is always a game fan and spent 3,000 yuan to buy a knife.2-way VoIP is only about 200K. With so many services added together, it is estimated that the downlink bandwidth will be around 20-30M in 2010. This is a very important data.This is the result of scientific investigation and should be more credible.In the long run about 50-100M, the reason to consider 3-way HDTV and other high-quality services.I can't think of anything higher than 50M so far. I can only talk about other high-quality businesses, which are still under discussion. I asked Japan's NTT, each of them has 100M, what do they use it for?I counted 30M for a long time, and finally told me the same thing, there may be large bandwidth, digital movies, which require 4-8 times the basis of high-definition TV, the future development is unpredictable, it may stimulate new applications, in the long run 50 -100M, more realistic is 20-30M.Various new wired broadband technologies, the first one is ADSL2+, which hopes to downlink 15-20M at a distance of 1.5 kilometers. This is a mature standardized technology and has become the dominant broadband access technology in the near future.Now from the survey of Guangdong and Sichuan, the two largest provinces in China, ADSL2+ has accounted for the new leading part, and the absolute number has accounted for 40% in Guangdong and more than 30% in Sichuan.The second is VDSL2. In the 12M spectrum, the downlink reaches 20M for 1.5 kilometers, which is actually not reached.1.5 kilometers of 30M spectrum can be standardized by a symmetrical 20M rate technology, which is not yet mature and belongs to an emerging market that is starting up.China Telecom is full of enthusiasm for VDSL2. The first test was carried out in August last year, and the test result was very disappointing. Therefore, the second round of test is planned in the second half of this year, hoping to promote its progress.The third EPON, 20km symmetrical 1.25G, it is said that 2.5G is coming out soon, this is a mature standardized technology, mainly in Japan, China will also enter the stage of large-scale commercial use.GPON is also a technology that China Telecom is very optimistic about, but it is still immature. The downlink 2.5G is standardized and is preferred by most large European and American operators. 2007 is the key.The major operators in Europe and the United States are all GPON, and this year will be difficult to pass. We will conduct the second round of GPON testing in the second half of this year. The first round of testing last year was very disappointing with VDSL2, but GPON was not satisfactory. These two technologies should be tested together for half a year.The last one is Active Ethernet, which has a symmetrical rate of 100M per household, and is a mature and weakly standardized technology, so it is difficult to interoperate. This is flexible, suitable for geographically dispersed users, and is an auxiliary technology.It should play a certain role in some places where users are very dispersed and far away, but it is not a dominant role.The application type of optical fiber to X, in fact, the so-called optical fiber FTTx depends on the location of the ONU, which is the definition of the reference model of our national access network technology system.Fiber to the roadside is to place the ONU in the last junction box.Fiber-to-the-building, our system was created in 1995. We always regard B as a large office building and B as a small building. There are dozens of rooms in the United States, small law firms, small accounting firms, and small government buildings. This specification is not a really big office building, each with a few hundred rooms, which is strictly another application, and the applied technology is different.The last one is FTTN, which is equivalent to placing the ONU between the flexible point and this. The optical cable is used between this place and the user. The most important terms when discussing fiber to the home are HP and HC. HP is Home Passed. In fact, it is equivalent to the last telecommunication checkpoint. Generally, there are still several hundred meters away from home. HC goes directly to the yard of the home. The price difference between the two is very far.This is a comparison of FTTx construction costs in the United States. From this picture, we can see a clear trend. Fiber to the node, yellow color, is generally the most economical when the penetration rate is not very high. FTTP is fiber to the home. , the cost is relatively high.Analysis of the ability of the existing network to support IPTV. Today's topic is not about fiber to the home. Now China Telecom is still dominated by fiber to the node. Fiber to the node hopes that fiber to the roadside can be used in individual new areas.The dominant cable is still copper cable. Can copper cable support Triple Play and IPTV? At present, the length of copper cable is less than 3 kilometers. In this survey, most users in Guangdong are within 2 kilometers, and in Sichuan it is more than 3 kilometers, with an average of 3.4 kilometers. , It may be farther to Qinghai, but 77% of telephone users can open 2M service rate within 3 kilometers of copper products.53% of users have copper cables within 2 kilometers in length, which can directly open 4M services.After upgrading to ADSL2+, the proportion of fixed network users supporting 4M service rate can be increased by 65%. If the crosstalk factor is not considered, the existing copper cable access network can basically meet the needs of most users for broadband services in the next few years after upgrading to ADSL2+.Now the standard definition TV is 2-3M. Most copper cable users can support IPTV services, but cannot support the 20-30M demand of market research after 5 years.Considering the crosstalk factor and high-end users' demands for broadband services, a bandwidth requirement of 20-30M is required.At present, ADSL2+ has become the main access, which can increase the bandwidth from 1.1M to 2.2M, support 512 carrier frequency points, downlink up to 24M in 0.9 kilometers, 20M in 1.2 kilometers, and 16M in 1.5 kilometers. 1ch HDTV+En 1ch SD and high-speed data voice.The shipment volume of ADSL2+ has surpassed that of ADSL, and the price is similar. Its application scope covers the traditional VDSL range to a large extent. It will replace the ADSL and VDSL QAM methods, integrate with the VDSL2 method, and become the dominant ADSL2+/VDSL2 hybrid method.Once VDSL2's cost-effectiveness meets certain requirements and meets the requirements, it will immediately become the dominant copper cable technology.Talking about the development of VDSL2, the frequency can be extended to 30M, 12M can dominate the market, high speed, 1 km up and down can reach 2.5 and 25M, backward compatibility, can be pre-adaptive compatibility of ADSL2+/ADSL2/ADSL.More complete power spectral density control and management technologies including spectrum slotting, uplink power reduction and MIB control are adopted, which effectively reduces the radio frequency interference from wireless signals.In the first quarter of 2007, the IOT (interoperability test) will be carried out in the second quarter, and it is expected to enter the scale of development in 2008.The maturity of VDSL2 still needs the efforts of all parties. According to the test results of China Telecom in August last year, the transmission performance of the equipment is not ideal and unstable. The management of VDSL2 central office and remote end has not yet been realized, or only very simple management, which is not compatible with VDSL2. It is very important that the backward compatibility of different chips can be smoothly transitioned, and the central office and user equipment of different chips cannot communicate with each other.Conclusion: There are currently no commercial deployment conditions. In order to meet the needs of broadband users, especially IPTV applications for access bandwidth, and promote the early maturity of VDSL2, China Telecom plans to conduct the second VDSL2 test in the second half of the year. can be quite satisfied.The evolution route of FTTx, FTTN+ADSL2+En/VDSL2 is the most economical broadband access solution in the near future. It is mainly suitable for the transformation of business districts with limited optical cable resources, the comprehensive access transformation of campus computer rooms with various business equipment, and the connection of large customers. access and wireless coverage.FTTH is a long-term ideal solution, currently mainly suitable for new business districts, high-end residential campuses and old cable replacement areas.Guangzhou has signed more than 100 buildings with fiber-to-the-home, but it will not work in Shenzhen. Shenzhen property prices do not need any bright spots, and they will rise. In Guangzhou, there are not so many bright spots.Therefore, there are many specific situations in the development of each place. FTTC, FTTB+ADSL2 and VDSL2 are between the two, and it is a medium and long-term solution with a forward-looking economical nature.Vega's business platform is a platform for SPs and users designed to provide SPs with Vega application services, providing users with convenient Internet payment methods, and at the same time providing support for SPs to promote their businesses, realize their own brands and improve their income.At present, it has developed into integrated broadband account payment, prepaid, PHS and fixed line payment and other unified Internet payment services.The development of SP services into IDC access, content distribution push CDN, portal cooperation, etc.At present, there are more than 600 SPs in the country.Recently opened up a business 114 Internet search service, which promotes the number of all-in-one in the country, and now extends to the Internet to further enrich the information content of the number of all-in-one, Internet 114, search services such as web pages, yellow pages, blogs, forums, etc., and gradually increase local information, music , video, pictures and other vertical search functions, and finally realize the extension from single voice search to voice, Loulanqi, IPTV, SMS and other multi-mode search services.Since the launch of 114 Internet Search for half a year, the national average daily search volume has exceeded 40 million, and it has become the top three in the domestic search market together with Baidu and Google.China Telecom's new development of broadband applications, we launched my e-home, a category is simple fusion of voice, including PHS cordless and super cordless, PHS can automatically switch between indoor fixed-line and outdoor PHS public networks, providing fixed-line and The PHS integrated business has accumulated more than 1 million users.The second IP, combined with ADSL and WiFi, is a broadband wireless modem that can access the Internet at the same time. It is the primary product of the e-home terminal and will have 300,000 users by the end of January.IP + integrated voice, built-in Lingtong cordless, in the long run, a new type of integrated terminal that integrates fixed-line WiFi and mobile is under discussion.China Telecom's new development of IPTV, our field experiment started in 2004, and it has been unsatisfactory for three years. At present, the broadband control policy is developing in a positive direction. China Telecom is conducting trial commercial use in Shanghai, Taizhou, Fuzhou, Xiamen, Xi'an, and Hanzhong. Obtained IPTV landing license in 6 places.The time for the full opening of IPTV network transmission services is becoming more and more mature. From a business and market perspective, by the end of 2006, China Telecom had developed 190,000 users, and we cooperated with Shanghai Media and Broadcasting to develop 128,000 users, and now it has exceeded 150,000. In addition to the successful opening of radio and television programs , China Telecom provides TV yellow pages, video space, catering, financial entertainment shopping and other services, the role of IPTV as a seed business has gradually emerged.IPTV has many problems that need to be solved in terms of technical supervision. From the perspective of the world, the development of IPTV is not ideal today. Mainland China is mainly subject to regulatory policies. move forward.From the technical level, combined with the commercial trial of IPTV and the transformation of the metropolitan area network, comprehensive use of transmission quality control, multicast control, streaming media and content distribution, video and audio coding and many other technical means, under the conditions of large bandwidth and high concurrency, Prove the comprehensive information service ability.In terms of video encoding, in addition to continuing to adopt the world's only H.264 standard that is jointly adopted by the three major industries of communication, broadcasting and storage, my country's AVS encoding method will soon be tested, evaluated and field tested.At that time, because there was no AVS, H.264 was settled. Now it is said that AVS is close to maturity, and we conduct evaluation and field experiments.Further research and exploration of multi-disciplinary and multi-level technical issues related to IPTV services.Involving IPTV is a brand-new field, and it involves all kinds of problems, which are impossible to encounter in small-scale experimental trials and commercialization today. In the future, large-scale commercialization must face these problems and need to be solved one by one.Content is king?Or is connection king?I always think that this problem is not so simple. All media almost agree that content is king. Only I insist that connection is king. Everyone writes articles and content is king. Let me elaborate. It is not that simple. The basic attribute of profitable business, telephone business is a typical end-to-end connectivity business, which generates a small number of bits, but has a high profit margin.The SMS service is an end-to-end connectivity service, and so many bytes charge much more than a few G-movies. The video communication service is also an end-to-end connectivity service. The Internet service has a client-to-server TCP connection, which is also a a connected business.Content services eat bandwidth, but the ability to generate income is weak. People are used to paying much more for connectivity services than for content services. The difference between a few gigabytes of SMS and a few gigabytes of movie downloads is hundreds of thousands of times. The money is about the same, not willing to pay for the movie yet.Therefore, from the perspective of profit, the current statement that content is king is debatable. From 2003 to the present, Vega has just reached 500 million. Fixed-line SMS or CRBT is many times more than Vega, so let’s take a look at the end. Is it the connection business to make money or the content business to make money.Therefore, it is the key to the success of IPTV to do a good job of various connection services.From the perspective of the value and importance of video content, there is some truth to the saying that content is king, and content payment costs are becoming an important part of video business operations.According to Accenture's analysis, in the fifth year of IPTV business operation, the content payment cost will account for more than 40% of the total marketing cost.At present, China's content payment is in a very chaotic stage. In the previous stage, a video online CEO visited and said that Hollywood in the United States did not authorize any unit in China, so why is the intellectual property issue? Not only the performance of VCD and DVD, but also IPTV will sooner or later. If you encounter this problem, if you don't solve it, you won't be able to get good movies in the future.Whether IPTV with video service as its basic feature can obtain valuable content economically is not only the key to attracting users to retain users, but also the key to reducing the cost of IPTV service platform.Therefore, there must be a reasonable and legal solution for these. A benign market environment is very important, so that we can really obtain valuable content and attract users.At present, there are not many bright spots in various places, including Shanghai, and there are not many really attractive businesses, and ordinary people are tired of watching it for a month.Taking me as an example, I basically don't watch TV now. If it is still this TV, I still don't watch it.